Bryce Allen
11 years ago
parent
e77d91b0db
commit
38745ec210
@ -1,2 +1,3 @@
|
||||
*.pyc
|
||||
README.html
|
||||
RECOMMENDATIONS.html
|
||||
|
||||
@ -0,0 +1,180 @@
|
||||
= Poogie Recommends
|
||||
|
||||
This tool is designed to find the best quest or hunt for farming a monster
|
||||
part. To do this, it calculates the
|
||||
link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value[expected value] for each
|
||||
quest, which is the average number of rewards from doing the quest many times.
|
||||
For easy display, it's listed as the expected value from doing the quest 100
|
||||
times. This value can be greater than 100, which indicates that on average,
|
||||
you can expect to get more than 1 of the item in each run of the quest.
|
||||
Expected value is linear, meaning that if you do half the number of quests, the
|
||||
expected value will be half. If you do one quest, the expected value is 1/100th
|
||||
of the shown value.
|
||||
|
||||
Remember that expected value is an average - in a single run you could get none
|
||||
or a lot less than expected and you could get more than expected. By the
|
||||
link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers[law of large numbers],
|
||||
if you do the quest many many times, it's very likely that your average will be
|
||||
close to the expected average. If you do the quest only a few times, it's not
|
||||
surprising or unlucky to get less than expected.
|
||||
|
||||
== Example
|
||||
|
||||
=== Poogie Recommends
|
||||
|
||||
The "Poogie Recommends" section is all you need if you don't care about the
|
||||
details. Here is a snippet of recommendation results for "Zinogre Jasper":
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------------------
|
||||
*** Poogie Recommends ***
|
||||
> G
|
||||
[No skills ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G cap (114.40)
|
||||
[Capture God ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G cap (124.90)
|
||||
[Amazing Luck] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G cap (164.20)
|
||||
|
||||
> HR
|
||||
[No skills ] (QUEST) The Caravaneer's Challenge HR kill (28.13)
|
||||
[Carving God ] (QUEST) The Caravaneer's Challenge HR kill (37.03)
|
||||
[Amazing Luck] (QUEST) The Caravaneer's Challenge HR kill (34.09)
|
||||
-------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
For each rank, it recommends the best quest and strategy for getting
|
||||
a Jasper. LR is not listed because the item is not available from low rank
|
||||
quests or hunts. The numbers given at the end in parenthesis are the expected
|
||||
values. If luck, capture, or carvings kills can give you a better expected
|
||||
value, they will be listed as well. This can give you an idea which armor
|
||||
skills may be worth using to farm the item.
|
||||
|
||||
These recommendations and expected values assume that you break all parts of
|
||||
the monster and cut and carve the tail. For details on which of these actually
|
||||
give you the item, scroll to the detailed entry for the quest or hunt below.
|
||||
|
||||
If hunting a monster in quests that don't give the item as a reward gives
|
||||
better results than a quest that does have the item, or if the item simply
|
||||
isn't available as a quest reward, hunts will be recommended instead of quests.
|
||||
|
||||
=== Hunt list
|
||||
|
||||
After the recommendations, the monster that have the item are listed, along
|
||||
with detailed expected values:
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------------------
|
||||
(HUNT) Zinogre HR
|
||||
Body Carve 1 9.00 / 100 ( 3 each) 9.75 10.50 12.00 14.34
|
||||
Tail Carve 1 2.00 / 100 ( 2 each) 2.50 3.00 4.00 5.56
|
||||
Shiny Drop 1 2.00 / 100 ( 2 each)
|
||||
Capture 1 5.38 / 100 ( 2 each) 6.00 7.38 8.00
|
||||
Break Head 1 3.00 / 100 ( 3 each)
|
||||
= Totals
|
||||
Kill 14.00 to 22.91 / 100
|
||||
Cap 10.38 to 13.00 / 100
|
||||
Shiny 2.00 / 100
|
||||
-------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
The totals can be used to figure out if killing or capture the monster will
|
||||
yield better results on average. The first value is the expected number of
|
||||
rewards from 100 hunts, assuming no skills. The second value assumes the best
|
||||
possible armor skill - Capture God for cap, and Carving God for kill. Shiny
|
||||
drops are not included in the total, but can be multiplied by the average
|
||||
number of shinys you get per quest and added to the carve or cap total. This
|
||||
is one of the advantages of using expected value instead of probability of
|
||||
at least one: it is very easy to calculate.
|
||||
|
||||
The previous lines give a breakdown of the expected value from each source,
|
||||
with the following format:
|
||||
|
||||
Source StackSize ExpectedValue (DropChance each) [EVWithSkill1, EVWithSkill2, ...]
|
||||
|
||||
For the quest section the source is A, B, or Sub, for the first line, second
|
||||
line, and Sub quest line. The ExpectedValue assumes no food or armor skills and
|
||||
takes into account StackSize. For quest rewards, cap rewards, and carves, the
|
||||
extra values at the end are for armor skills, starting from the weakest version
|
||||
to the best version. For example on quest lines the values are for Good Luck,
|
||||
Great Luck, and Amazing Luck.
|
||||
|
||||
=== Quest list
|
||||
|
||||
Finally quests are listed, which combine the quest reward expected values and
|
||||
the carve/cap expected values from hunting the monster which are also listed
|
||||
in the HUNT sections above.
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------------------
|
||||
(QUEST) See the Lightning (Caravan 6* HR)
|
||||
Goal: Hunt a Zinogre
|
||||
Sub : Wound the Zinogre's back
|
||||
= Quest
|
||||
A 1 4.71 / 100 ( 1 each) 5.24 5.90 6.70
|
||||
Sub 1 2.49 / 100 ( 1 each) 2.87 3.31 3.82
|
||||
= Zinogre HR
|
||||
Body Carve 1 9.00 / 100 ( 3 each) 9.75 10.50 12.00 14.34
|
||||
Tail Carve 1 2.00 / 100 ( 2 each) 2.50 3.00 4.00 5.56
|
||||
Shiny Drop 1 2.00 / 100 ( 2 each)
|
||||
Capture 1 5.38 / 100 ( 2 each) 6.00 7.38 8.00
|
||||
Break Head 1 3.00 / 100 ( 3 each)
|
||||
= Totals
|
||||
Kill 21.19 to 30.10 / 100
|
||||
Cap 17.57 to 20.19 / 100
|
||||
Shiny 2.00 / 100
|
||||
-------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
=== Wyporium Trades
|
||||
|
||||
Items that are only available by trading other monster parts at the Wyporium
|
||||
are supported by showing recommendations for the item you trade for that part.
|
||||
For example, "Zinogre Skymerald" can be traded for "Nargacuga Mantle". When
|
||||
searching for the mantle, this is displayed on top of the results for skymerald:
|
||||
|
||||
-------------------------------------
|
||||
*** Wyporium trade for 'Zinogre Skymerald'
|
||||
Unlocked by quest 'Advanced: Bolt of Pink (Guild 9* G)'
|
||||
|
||||
*** Poogie Recommends ***
|
||||
> G
|
||||
[No skills ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G kill (53.97)
|
||||
[Capture God ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G cap (54.97)
|
||||
[Carving God ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G kill (68.22)
|
||||
[Amazing Luck] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G kill (70.57)
|
||||
|
||||
...
|
||||
-------------------------------------
|
||||
|
||||
== Known issues
|
||||
|
||||
=== Recommendation engine issues
|
||||
|
||||
These are known issues in the recommendation engine which I plan on fixing:
|
||||
|
||||
- If cap and kill have equal expected values, e.g. if the item comes only
|
||||
from quest rewards and breaks that you can get with both strategies, it
|
||||
will still be listed with strategy 'cap'. I'd like to enhance this so it
|
||||
reports that it doesn't matter.
|
||||
- I'd like to list more details in the recommendation section so you don't
|
||||
need to scroll down to see which breaks and shinys you should try for.
|
||||
|
||||
=== Database issues
|
||||
|
||||
The monster hunter database used by this recommendation engine is a work in
|
||||
progress, and in some places the data is in complete or incorrect.
|
||||
|
||||
In particular:
|
||||
|
||||
- Drop rates are determined by the community and not provided by Capcom, so
|
||||
they may be slightly off from the actual values used by the game.
|
||||
- Some quests rewards have total probabilities that add up to more than 100.
|
||||
This shows up in the results as WARNING lines.
|
||||
- Some quests are not linked to all the monsters you hunt in that quest. When
|
||||
this happens the expected values will not be correct. This is easy to see
|
||||
when the quest goal says something like "Hunt MONSTER1 and MONSTER2", and
|
||||
MONSTER2 has the item, but it's not listed below. The monsters in a quest
|
||||
are found from the database, not from interpreting the goal text.
|
||||
|
||||
=== Monster hunter mechanics
|
||||
|
||||
There are also assumptions made by the recommendation engine about how the game
|
||||
determines rewards that may not be correct. Some examples:
|
||||
|
||||
- Quest line A always has at least 4 rewards, line B always has at least 2,
|
||||
and C always has at least one. This is probably a good approximation for most
|
||||
quests, but it may vary between quests.
|
||||
- Probabilities for getting more than the minimum rewards may be off, and the
|
||||
way the number of rewards is determined may even be wrong.
|
||||
Loading…
Reference in new issue