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180 lines
7.9 KiB
180 lines
7.9 KiB
= Poogie Recommends
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This tool is designed to find the best quest or hunt for farming a monster
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part. To do this, it calculates the
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link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value[expected value] for each
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quest, which is the average number of rewards from doing the quest many times.
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For easy display, it's listed as the expected value from doing the quest 100
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times. This value can be greater than 100, which indicates that on average,
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you can expect to get more than 1 of the item in each run of the quest.
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Expected value is linear, meaning that if you do half the number of quests, the
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expected value will be half. If you do one quest, the expected value is 1/100th
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of the shown value.
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Remember that expected value is an average - in a single run you could get none
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or a lot less than expected and you could get more than expected. By the
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link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers[law of large numbers],
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if you do the quest many many times, it's very likely that your average will be
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close to the expected average. If you do the quest only a few times, it's not
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surprising or unlucky to get less than expected.
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== Example
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=== Poogie Recommends
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The "Poogie Recommends" section is all you need if you don't care about the
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details. Here is a snippet of recommendation results for "Zinogre Jasper":
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-------------------------------------
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*** Poogie Recommends ***
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> G
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[No skills ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G cap (114.40)
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[Capture God ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G cap (124.90)
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[Amazing Luck] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G cap (164.20)
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> HR
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[No skills ] (QUEST) The Caravaneer's Challenge HR kill (28.13)
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[Carving God ] (QUEST) The Caravaneer's Challenge HR kill (37.03)
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[Amazing Luck] (QUEST) The Caravaneer's Challenge HR kill (34.09)
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-------------------------------------
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For each rank, it recommends the best quest and strategy for getting
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a Jasper. LR is not listed because the item is not available from low rank
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quests or hunts. The numbers given at the end in parenthesis are the expected
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values. If luck, capture, or carvings kills can give you a better expected
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value, they will be listed as well. This can give you an idea which armor
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skills may be worth using to farm the item.
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These recommendations and expected values assume that you break all parts of
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the monster and cut and carve the tail. For details on which of these actually
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give you the item, scroll to the detailed entry for the quest or hunt below.
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If hunting a monster in quests that don't give the item as a reward gives
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better results than a quest that does have the item, or if the item simply
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isn't available as a quest reward, hunts will be recommended instead of quests.
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=== Hunt list
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After the recommendations, the monster that have the item are listed, along
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with detailed expected values:
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-------------------------------------
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(HUNT) Zinogre HR
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Body Carve 1 9.00 / 100 ( 3 each) 9.75 10.50 12.00 14.34
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Tail Carve 1 2.00 / 100 ( 2 each) 2.50 3.00 4.00 5.56
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Shiny Drop 1 2.00 / 100 ( 2 each)
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Capture 1 5.38 / 100 ( 2 each) 6.00 7.38 8.00
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Break Head 1 3.00 / 100 ( 3 each)
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= Totals
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Kill 14.00 to 22.91 / 100
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Cap 10.38 to 13.00 / 100
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Shiny 2.00 / 100
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-------------------------------------
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The totals can be used to figure out if killing or capture the monster will
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yield better results on average. The first value is the expected number of
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rewards from 100 hunts, assuming no skills. The second value assumes the best
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possible armor skill - Capture God for cap, and Carving God for kill. Shiny
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drops are not included in the total, but can be multiplied by the average
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number of shinys you get per quest and added to the carve or cap total. This
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is one of the advantages of using expected value instead of probability of
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at least one: it is very easy to calculate.
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The previous lines give a breakdown of the expected value from each source,
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with the following format:
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Source StackSize ExpectedValue (DropChance each) [EVWithSkill1, EVWithSkill2, ...]
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For the quest section the source is A, B, or Sub, for the first line, second
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line, and Sub quest line. The ExpectedValue assumes no food or armor skills and
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takes into account StackSize. For quest rewards, cap rewards, and carves, the
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extra values at the end are for armor skills, starting from the weakest version
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to the best version. For example on quest lines the values are for Good Luck,
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Great Luck, and Amazing Luck.
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=== Quest list
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Finally quests are listed, which combine the quest reward expected values and
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the carve/cap expected values from hunting the monster which are also listed
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in the HUNT sections above.
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-------------------------------------
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(QUEST) See the Lightning (Caravan 6* HR)
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Goal: Hunt a Zinogre
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Sub : Wound the Zinogre's back
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= Quest
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A 1 4.71 / 100 ( 1 each) 5.24 5.90 6.70
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Sub 1 2.49 / 100 ( 1 each) 2.87 3.31 3.82
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= Zinogre HR
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Body Carve 1 9.00 / 100 ( 3 each) 9.75 10.50 12.00 14.34
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Tail Carve 1 2.00 / 100 ( 2 each) 2.50 3.00 4.00 5.56
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Shiny Drop 1 2.00 / 100 ( 2 each)
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Capture 1 5.38 / 100 ( 2 each) 6.00 7.38 8.00
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Break Head 1 3.00 / 100 ( 3 each)
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= Totals
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Kill 21.19 to 30.10 / 100
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Cap 17.57 to 20.19 / 100
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Shiny 2.00 / 100
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-------------------------------------
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=== Wyporium Trades
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Items that are only available by trading other monster parts at the Wyporium
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are supported by showing recommendations for the item you trade for that part.
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For example, "Zinogre Skymerald" can be traded for "Nargacuga Mantle". When
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searching for the mantle, this is displayed on top of the results for skymerald:
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-------------------------------------
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*** Wyporium trade for 'Zinogre Skymerald'
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Unlocked by quest 'Advanced: Bolt of Pink (Guild 9* G)'
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*** Poogie Recommends ***
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> G
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[No skills ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G kill (53.97)
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[Capture God ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G cap (54.97)
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[Carving God ] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G kill (68.22)
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[Amazing Luck] (QUEST) Advanced: Fury on the Mount G kill (70.57)
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...
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-------------------------------------
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== Known issues
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=== Recommendation engine issues
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These are known issues in the recommendation engine which I plan on fixing:
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- I'd like to list more details in the recommendation section so you don't
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need to scroll down to see which breaks and shinys you should try for.
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- Assumes 3 body carvers for all monsters. Some like Gravios have
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actually have4.
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=== Database issues
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The monster hunter database used by this recommendation engine is a work in
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progress, and in some places the data is in complete or incorrect.
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In particular:
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- Drop rates are determined by the community and not provided by Capcom, so
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they may be slightly off from the actual values used by the game.
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- Some quests rewards have total probabilities that add up to more than 100.
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It now normalizes the values so the total is 100, but the data is still
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suspect.
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- Some quests are not linked to all the monsters you hunt in that quest. When
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this happens the expected values will not be correct. This is easy to see
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when the quest goal says something like "Hunt MONSTER1 and MONSTER2", and
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MONSTER2 has the item, but it's not listed below. The monsters in a quest
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are found from the database, not from interpreting the goal text.
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=== Monster hunter mechanics
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There are also assumptions made by the recommendation engine about how the game
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determines rewards that may not be correct. Some examples:
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- Quest line A always has at least 4 rewards, line B always has at least 2,
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and C always has at least one. This is probably a good approximation for most
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quests, but it may vary between quests.
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- Probabilities for getting more than the minimum rewards may be off, and the
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way the number of rewards is determined may even be wrong.
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